1 August 2005

Jamie Walker
c/- Courier Mail

A Turn Left for Queensland Government?

I refer to your constructive comments about the political implications of the recent changes in Queensland's ministries, and would like to suggest that these changes (when combined with other factors) suggest that more could be involved than simply putting on a new coat of political polish.

My interpretation of your article: Has Queensland's premier overreached himself with the Labor Party? This is being asked after changes to ministry and bureaucracy. Treasurer (previously seen as dominant figure in government) has gone. Left-winger has been installed as deputy premier, and responsible for state development. Health minister was moved, and senior health officials sacked. This aimed to excise problems emerging from Bundaberg Hospital. Aspects of Treasurer's departure do not a add up - as there seems no imperative for him to go. Premier has taken over Treasurer's job. The official line is that Treasurer wanted a career change. Not all support Anna Bligh who has become deputy premier - and she and Treasurer did not get on well. Putting Bligh in this position eases problems with troublesome Left. But premier's choice for another ministerial position was not supported. Politically premier's position is rock solid - and he is positioning others to succeed him (Walker J., 'Spring clean', Courier Mail, 30-31/7/05).

The changes made may indicate a significant policy re-alignment related to the many chronic problems that pervade Queensland's public administration. Moreover those changes might involve giving increased priority to policies of the ALP Left, and imply that Treasury was 'rolled' - a situation that the former Treasurer may not have been willing to live with.

Some reasons to suspect that recent changes could reflect such a policy re-alignment are:

• the shambles in Queensland Health - and the suggested methods for reforming hospitals developed by the Health System Review team collaborating with the Morris inquiry (see Intended Submission to Health Systems Royal Commission). In particular:
  • The review team proposed turning hospitals into government owned corporations (GOCs). This would probably be the Treasury's preferred model - but perhaps not the option favoured by the Left;
  • Moreover the shambles in the health system has been partly due to a cost-cutting fixation by Queensland Health management - which has arisen from Treasury-driven emphasis on achieving productivity gains;
  • The trouble is that, political control over policy makes it hard for government organisations to develop new market-oriented business activities, so cost-cutting is virtually the only way to achieve the 'productivity' gains that the government's financial imperatives require;
  • Creating GOCs would not overcome this problem;
  • There could thus well be a major policy conflict between the state government's financial imperatives, and requirements to fix the health system medically;
  • This conflict between public finance and professional standards could be replicated in many other public functions;
• the Premier has stated that (a) Queensland's future budget position will be far more difficult, and also that (b) infrastructure programs involving large increases in state spending can be expected to lead to overheating (and escalating costs) due to skills shortages. This amounts to recognition of some of the obvious irresponsibility in the recent Queensland budget. Also Access Economic has pointed out the consensual view of economists that the commodities boom is not likely to last long - and without this (and a property boom) Queensland's public financing is going to be under pressure - a recognition which could easily have become apparent through modelling;
• the fact that the Left (via the new Deputy Premier) has been given State Development responsibility. This shift seems most unlikely unless something quite different from past policies is intended. In this respect I note that:
  • diversification of Queensland's economy is going to to be economically and financially vital in the not too distant future (see Queensland's Economic Strategy);
  • the union movement (the political foundation of the Left, and ultimately of the ALP) is going to be weakened by federal industrial relations reforms, unless someone can demonstrate a method for enhancing economic productivity without simply downgrading the role of unions to raise business flexibility;
  • Smart State has been seen as the means for diversification of Queensland's economy, and the new Deputy Premier has had an involvement in this as Education Minister;
  • the methods which have been used in attempting to achieve this have been amateurish (see Overcoming Impediments to Achieving Smart State Goals). It may be that the penny finally dropped - ie it may have been recognised that diversification of Queensland's economy requires enhancement of commercial competencies (ie getting business to perform better) rather than continuing to 'flog the guts out of the public sector';
• the fact that the Left (through the new Deputy Premier) has also been given responsibility for GOCs. This again implies that a different (eg more conventional public service) approach may be taken to GOCs in future rather than the financial-productivity emphasis that has applied under pressure from Treasury and the National Competition Policy.

If radical policy re-alignments are in fact intended (and the fact is that 'business as usual' seemed increasingly untenable) then the prospects of future instability in Queensland's system of government are quite high.

Queensland's problem remains the lack of community support for apolitical institutions (both outside government, and inside in the form of a professionally accountable Public Service) that would be able to provide more reliable information to the community and its representatives about the implications of public and economic polices (see Queensland's Weak Parliament).

Regards

John Craig