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29 September 2006
Members of the Legislative Assembly
Queensland's Challenge: A 2006 Report Card ..... for Your Consideration
In early
2001, following a state election, an evaluation of strategic issues facing
government,
Queensland's Challenge, was
submitted to all Members of the Legislative Assembly.
This email
includes brief comments on that assessment and on 'progress' over the past few
years (see below).
Regards
John Craig
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2006
Report Card |
Queensland's Challenge: A 2006 Report Card
Queensland's Challenge
in 2001 focused on:
- severe social stresses - eg high
levels of unemployment, poverty, violence, dubious ethics, sexual assault,
crime, fear and drug use;
- the political instability associated with One
Nation that appeared to have arisen, especially in marginal rural, coastal and
metropolitan regions, from the social stresses that resulted from poor,
un-supportive management of pressures for economic change in the 1990s;
- attempts to diversify the economy (eg
under 'Smart State') which could achieve little but buy the support of elite
interest groups and consume public money;
- significant economic changes that would
now be required, due to the challenges that resource-based industries
face from environmental constraints and from global restructuring /
competitors;
- a requirement for fundamental overhaul of
government administration itself because:
- Parliament had often behaved with
juvenile abandon, partly because there has been little policy
'raw material' to work with;
- the 'rorting' culture identified in
the ALP's AWU faction in relation to filling key political positions had
also damaged the Public Service;
- for this reason, and others, the Public
Service had lacked professional credibility and administration had been
degenerating into a shambles;
- prospective financial difficulties had
been emerging. Queensland had not been ‘burning cash’ as fast as some ‘dot.coms’,
but it had been ‘burning cash’. Both the state budget and the ‘commercial’
model for government business enterprises seemed to be likely to become
financially exposed;
- the lack of attention to any of the
difficult challenges in the policies of major political groups.
Now in late 2006 it appears that:
- progress has been made in reducing
unemployment presumably because of:
- an unprecedented period of uninterrupted
global economic expansion, combined with constrained inflation;
- rapid growth in East and South Asia which
ignited a boom in demand for minerals and energy that reversed the
poor future outlook which the state's then-unprofitable resource industries
had had in the 1990s;
- further improvements in the sophistication
of Queensland business - a trend that has been apparent for decades and
seems at least partly due to substantial interstate migration; and
- increased public spending;
- many social stresses have been swept
under the carpet, and largely remain unresolved. For example:
- growth in demand for social support services
has been seen as overwhelming current systems (see
Is
the Smart State a Just State: A Commentary);
- the general framework of Queensland's social
services has been described as inadequate [1];
- efforts to rectify a crisis in
child protection services encountered an ever escalating growth in the
magnitude of the problem [1,
2,
3];
- numerous problems are emerging from
worsening interpersonal relationships. For example, it has recently been
reported that: 10% of men and 20% of women have been stalked [1];
and 20% of Queenslanders have had to move house because of neighborhood
frictions [1]. Governments
efforts to deal with the social consequences of the failure of individual
consciences to ensure moral interpersonal relationships are potentially
placing individual liberty (and its critically important political and
economic benefits) at risk (see
Moral Foundations of Individual Liberty);
- claims have been made (and contested)
that poverty has become a serious problem nationwide - perhaps
even involving the emergence of a self-perpetuating under-class (see
Notes
on Minimizing Poverty). At the very least it seems that the budget cost
of welfare payments to ensure reasonable levels of social equity has
increased significantly;
- the rhetoric of the Smart State
program remains as economically relevant as it has been since it first gained
bipartisan endorsement in the mid 1980s, while the practical substance of
specific initiatives remain ineffectual - eg they continue to be directed
towards increasing 'smart' inputs (education and research) to an economic
system that is poorly positioned to use them productively (see
Commentary on Smart State). The potential to strengthen Queensland's
economic productivity remains unfulfilled (see
Defects in Economic Tactics, Strategy and
Outcomes);
-
difficult economic adjustment remain a
likely future requirement because of,
for example:
- presumably unavoidable global economic and
financial instabilities;
- the boom-bust character of commodity
industries, and the poor productivity in the face of low-wage competition
of all primarily capital intensive industries;
- challenges from rapidly growing low-wage
competition in medium technology manufacturing from East Asia and in service
industries from South Asia;
- the role that globalization of operations
has acquired in lifting business productivity;
- the
shambles in Queensland's
public service delivery
has already resulted in, or contributed
to, obvious crises in
child protection,
electricity distribution,
hospitals
and
water supplies. Moreover:
- the quantity and quality of public inputs
to the political process continue to increase. For example: forums for
serious and informed policy debate now exist (such as the Brisbane Institute
and Online Opinion); civil institutions have undertaken more systematic
work (eg Australian Property Council, Australian Medical Association, Commerce
Queensland, Queensland Council of Social Services, Royal Automobile Club of
Queensland, and various other university and private groups); individual firms
have sponsored research in areas related to their primary functions; and the
media (eg The Courier Mail) has at times taken a useful role in
promoting debate. However:
- Queensland's budgetary position is enigmatic.
The preferred 'solution' to problems in recent years seems typically to have
been to throw money at them - while being forced to rely on ineffectual
government machinery in doing so. Rapid increases in spending and revenues
have occurred in recent years. While an operating surplus appears to be
maintained and the net asset position is deteriorating only slowly, those
outcomes seems anomalous in the face of the 'drunken sailor' approach to
spending that has prevailed.
Underlying Pressures for Increased State
Taxation suggests that in
assessing the budgetary position attention should be paid, for example, to:
- cost blow-outs;
- interstate pressure to eliminate the subsidy
which Queensland receives through the Grants Commission's 'horizontal
equalization' determinations as compensation for the continued low
productivity of its economy;
- 'creative' capital accounting which has been
apparently been used (at least at times in the past) to give the impression
of a sound operating position; and
- the dependence of recent revenues on
presumably-unsustainable economic booms;
- the corporatisation model which has been
applied to Queensland's government-owned enterprises remains a 'sleeper'
issue, and a
likely cause of future financial losses
when / if those entities encounter a truly competitive environment while
remaining subject to political direction.
In summary it is clear that (a)
Queensland is limiting its potential through bad government - as it has done
at many
times in its history and (b) that the community is belatedly becoming
disillusioned with a political system that is pretentious,
self-serving, knowingly-unjust and ineffectual. Typical views recently
expressed in the media concerning Queensland's political system suggested
that:
- Voters will give their votes grudgingly,
as electors believe that both sides deserve to lose [1];
- Voters are disappointed with all sides of
politics [1];
- the ALP gained a fourth term in Queensland
from voters under duress. Had there been even the semblance of an
opposition they would have been thrown out [1];
- Queensland's politics is a mystery. It is
universally agreed that the state government is a dud, yet the ALP
continues to win landslide victories [1];
- Queensland is regarded as a one party
state because there is no alternative to Labor [1];
- Business is concerned about lack of
achievements under the Beattie government [1];
- ALP government has been returned despite a
crisis-prone third term, but business has warned of that there is a lot
that now needs to be done [1].
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